Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.026864 0.030587 0.034664 0.039463 0.044962 0.051072 0.058385
2025-01-12 0.020575 0.025503 0.031391 0.038965 0.048473 0.060050 0.075268
2025-01-19 0.016700 0.021895 0.028475 0.037455 0.049444 0.064973 0.086737
2025-01-26 0.015054 0.020677 0.028151 0.038867 0.053932 0.074490 0.104909
2025-02-02 0.013791 0.019717 0.027930 0.040225 0.058302 0.084126 0.124205
2025-02-09 0.012764 0.018914 0.027761 0.041523 0.062596 0.093966 0.144811
2025-02-16 0.011505 0.017600 0.026665 0.041261 0.064437 0.100245 0.160606
2025-02-23 0.010565 0.016646 0.025973 0.041482 0.066957 0.107714 0.178998
2025-03-02 0.009592 0.015527 0.024892 0.040932 0.068117 0.113037 0.194341
2025-03-09 0.009022 0.014991 0.024669 0.041726 0.071526 0.122336 0.217427
2025-03-16 0.008292 0.014110 0.023786 0.041294 0.072756 0.127981 0.234600
2025-03-23 0.007919 0.013798 0.023820 0.042434 0.076828 0.138972 0.262728
2025-03-30 0.007142 0.012722 0.022459 0.040996 0.076160 0.141457 0.275382
2025-04-06 0.006564 0.011952 0.021570 0.040333 0.076867 0.146579 0.293818
2025-04-13 0.005926 0.011009 0.020280 0.038778 0.075680 0.147902 0.304685
2025-04-20 0.005751 0.010916 0.020550 0.040242 0.080554 0.161615 0.342836
2025-04-27 0.005580 0.010811 0.020785 0.041649 0.085447 0.175861 0.383857
2025-05-04 0.005411 0.010696 0.020985 0.042997 0.090340 0.190606 0.427793
2025-05-11 0.005079 0.010222 0.020431 0.042725 0.091755 0.198061 0.456078
2025-05-18 0.004826 0.009888 0.020129 0.042954 0.094274 0.208170 0.491780
2025-05-25 0.004516 0.009410 0.019488 0.042383 0.094945 0.214192 0.518404
2025-06-01 0.004358 0.009240 0.019479 0.043206 0.098866 0.228063 0.566076
2025-06-08 0.004101 0.008834 0.018931 0.042759 0.099779 0.234960 0.596986